Virion morphology and on-virus spike protein structures of diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants (preprint)

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants with increased fitness has been accompanied by structural changes in the spike (S) proteins that are the major target for the adaptive immune response. Single-particle cryo-EM analysis of soluble S from SARS-CoV-2 variants has revealed this structural adaptation at high-resolution. The analysis of S trimers in situ on intact virions has the potential to provide more functionally relevant insights into S structure and virion morphology. Here, we characterized B.1, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Kappa, and Mu variants by cryo-electron microscopy and tomography, assessing S cleavage, virion morphology, S incorporation, "in-situ" high-resolution S structures and the range of S conformational states. We found no evidence for adaptive changes in virion morphology, but describe multiple different positions in the S protein where amino acid changes alter local protein structure. Considered together, our data is consistent with a model where amino acid changes at multiple positions from the top to the base of the spike cause structural changes that can modulate the conformational dynamics of S.

A highly divergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1 sample in a patient with long-term COVID-19 (preprint)

We report the genomic analysis of a highly divergent SARS-CoV-2 sample obtained in October 2022 from an HIV+ patient with presumably long-term COVID-19 infection. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that the sample is characterized by a gain of 89 mutations since divergence from its nearest sequenced neighbor, which had been collected in September 2020 and belongs to the B.1.1 lineage, largely extinct in 2022. 33 of these mutations were coding and occurred in the Spike protein. Of these, 17 are lineage-defining in some of the variants of concern (VOCs) or are in sites where another mutation is lineage-defining in a variant of concern, and/or shown to be involved in antibody evasion, and/or detected in other cases of persistent COVID-19; these include some "usual suspects," such as Spike:L452R, E484Q, K417T, Y453F, and N460K. Molecular clock analysis indicates that mutations in this lineage accumulated at an increased rate compared to the ancestral B.1.1 strain. This increase is driven by the accumulation of nonsynonymous mutations, for an average dN/dS value of 2.2, indicating strong positive selection during within-patient evolution. Additionally, there is reason to believe that the virus had persisted for at least some time in the gastrointestinal tract, as evidenced by the presence of mutations that are rare in the general population samples but common in samples from wastewater. Our analysis adds to the growing body of research on evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in chronically infected patients and its relationship to the emergence of variants of concern.

Sensitivity of BA.2.86 to prevailing neutralising antibody responses (preprint)

A new SARS-CoV-2 variant, designated BA.2.86, has recently emerged with over 30 spike mutations relative to its parental BA.2, raising questions about its degree of resistance to neutralising antibodies. Using a spike-pseudotyped virus model we characterise neutralisation of BA.2.86 by clinically relevant monoclonal antibodies and by two cohorts of serum sampled from Stockholm, including both a recent cohort, and one sampled prior to the arrival of XBB in Sweden.

Modelling the viral dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants in different cell types (preprint)

We use viral kinetic models fitted to viral load data from in vitro studies to explain why the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant replicates faster than the Delta variant in nasal cells, but slower than Delta in lung cells, which could explain Omicron's higher transmission potential and lower severity. We find that in both nasal and lung cells, viral infectivity is higher for Omicron but the virus production rate is higher for Delta. However, the differences are unequal between cell types, and ultimately leads to the basic reproduction number and growth rate being higher for Omicron in nasal cells, and higher for Delta in lung cells. In nasal cells, Omicron alone can enter via a TMPRSS2-independent pathway, but it is primarily increased efficiency of TMPRSS2-dependent entry which accounts for Omicron's increased activity. This work paves the way for using within-host mathematical models to understand the transmission potential and severity of future variants.

Propylene glycol inactivates respiratory viruses and prevents airborne transmission (preprint)

Viruses are vulnerable as they transmit between hosts and we aimed to exploit this critical window. We found that the ubiquitous, safe, inexpensive and biodegradable small molecule propylene glycol (PG) has robust virucidal activity. Propylene glycol rapidly inactivates influenza, SARS-CoV-2 and a broad range of other enveloped viruses, and reduces disease burden in mice when administered intranasally at concentrations commonly found in nasal sprays. Most critically, aerosolized PG efficiently abolishes influenza and SARS-CoV-2 infectivity within airborne droplets, potently preventing infection at levels significantly below those well-tolerated by mammals. We present PG vapor as a first-in-class non-toxic airborne virucide, to prevent transmission of existing and emergent viral pathogens, with clear and immediate implications for public health.

Genomic assessment of invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) arise against the backdrop of increasingly heterogeneous human connectivity and population immunity. Through a large-scale phylodynamic analysis of 115,622 Omicron genomes, we identified >6,000 independent introductions of the antigenically distinct virus into England and reconstructed the dispersal history of resulting local transmission. Travel restrictions on southern Africa did not reduce BA.1 importation intensity as secondary hubs became major exporters. We explored potential drivers of BA.1 spread across England and discovered an early period during which viral lineage movements mainly occurred between larger cities, followed by a multi-focal spatial expansion shaped by shorter distance mobility patterns. We also found evidence that disease incidence impacted human commuting behaviours around major travel hubs. Our results offer a detailed characterisation of processes that drive the invasion of an emerging VOC across multiple spatial scales and provide unique insights on the interplay between disease spread and human mobility.

Mutational spectra distinguish SARS-CoV-2 replication niches (preprint)

Exposure to different mutagens leaves distinct mutational patterns that can allow prediction of pathogen replication niches (Ruis 2022). We therefore hypothesised that analysis of SARS-CoV-2 mutational spectra might show lineage-specific differences, dependant on the dominant site(s) of replication and onwards transmission, and could therefore rapidly infer virulence of emergent variants of concern (VOC; Konings 2021). Through mutational spectrum analysis, we found a significant reduction in G>T mutations in Omicron, which replicates in the upper respiratory tract (URT), compared to other lineages, which replicate in both upper and lower respiratory tracts (LRT). Mutational analysis of other viruses and bacteria indicates a robust, generalisable association of high G>T mutations with replication within the LRT. Monitoring G>T mutation rates over time, we found early separation of Omicron from Beta, Gamma and Delta, while the mutational burden in Alpha varied consistent with changes in transmission source as social restrictions were lifted. This supports the use of mutational spectra to infer niches of established and emergent pathogens.

Omicron sublineage BA.2.75.2 exhibits extensive escape from neutralising antibodies (preprint)

Several sublineages of omicron have emerged with additional mutations that may afford further antibody evasion. Here, we characterise the sensitivity of emerging omicron sublineages BA.2.75.2, BA.4.6, and BA.2.10.4 to antibody-mediated neutralisation, and identify extensive escape by BA.2.75.2. BA.2.75.2 was resistant to neutralisation by Evusheld (tixagevimab + cilgavimab), but remained sensitive to bebtelovimab. In recent serum samples from blood donors in Stockholm, Sweden, BA.2.75.2 was neutralised, on average, five-fold less potently than BA.5, representing the most neutralisation resistant variant evaluated to date. These data raise concerns that BA.2.75.2 may effectively evade humoral immunity in the population.

Evasion of neutralizing antibodies by Omicron sublineage BA.2.75 (preprint)

Towards the end of 2021, SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness was threatened by the emergence of the Omicron clade (B.1.1.529), with more than 30 mutations in spike. Recently, several sublineages of Omicron, including BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5, have demonstrated even greater immune evasion, and are driving waves of infections across the globe. One emerging sublineage, BA.2.75, is increasing in frequency in India and has been detected in at least 15 countries as of 19 July 2022. Relative to BA.2, BA.2.75 carries nine additional mutations in spike. Here we report the sensitivity of the BA.2.75 spike to neutralization by a panel of clinically-relevant and pre-clinical monoclonal antibodies, as well as by serum from blood donated in Stockholm, Sweden, before and after the BA.1/BA.2 infection wave. BA.2.75 does not show greater immune evasion than the currently-dominating BA.5 in our set of serum samples, and exhibits moderate susceptibility to tixagevimab and cilgavimab that form a widely used monoclonal antibody cocktail (Evusheld).

Distinct antigenic properties of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 (preprint)

Over the course of the pandemic variants have arisen at a steady rate. The most recent variants to emerge, BA.4 and BA.5, form part of the Omicron lineage and were first found in Southern Africa where they are driving the current wave of infection. In this report, we perform an in-depth characterisation of the antigenicity of the BA.4/BA.5 Spike protein by comparing sera collected post-vaccination, post-BA.1 or BA.2 infection, or post breakthrough infection of vaccinated individuals with the Omicron variant. In addition, we assess sensitivity to neutralisation by commonly used therapeutic monoclonal antibodies. We find sera collected post-vaccination have a similar ability to neutralise BA.1, BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5. In contrast, in the absence of vaccination, prior infection with BA.2 or, in particular, BA.1 results in an antibody response that neutralises BA.4/BA.5 poorly. Breakthrough infection with Omicron in vaccinees leads to a broad neutralising response against the new variants. The sensitivity of BA.4/BA.5 to neutralisation by therapeutic monoclonal antibodies was similar to that of BA.2. These data suggest BA.4/BA.5 are antigenically distinct from BA.1 and, to a lesser extent, BA.2. The enhanced breadth of neutralisation observed following breakthrough infection with Omicron suggests that vaccination with heterologous or multivalent antigens may represent viable strategies for the development of cross-neutralising antibody responses.

Omicron breakthrough infections in vaccinated or previously infected hamsters (preprint)

The second and third years of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have been marked by the repeated emergence and replacement of variants with genetic and phenotypic distance from the ancestral strains, the most recent examples being Delta and Omicron. Here we describe a hamster contact exposure challenge model to assess protection conferred by vaccination or prior infection against re-infection. We found that 2-doses of self-amplifying RNA vaccine based on the ancestral spike ameliorated weight loss following Delta infection and decreased viral loads, but had minimal effect on Omicron/BA.1 infection. Prior infection with ancestral or Alpha variant was partially protective against Omicron/BA.1 infection, whereas all animals previously infected with Delta and exposed to Omicron became infected, although shed less virus. We further tested whether prior infection with Omicron/BA.1 protected from re-infection with Delta or Omicron/BA.2. Omicron/BA.1 was protective against Omicron/BA.2, but not Delta reinfection, again showing Delta and Omicron have a very large antigenic distance. Indeed, cross-neutralisation assays with human antisera from otherwise immunonaive individuals (unvaccinated and no known prior infection), confirmed a large antigenic distance between Delta and Omicron. Prior vaccination followed by Omicron or Delta breakthrough infection led to a higher degree of cross-reactivity to all tested variants. To conclude, cohorts whose only immune experience of COVID is Omicron/BA.1 infection may be particularly vulnerable to future circulation of Delta or Delta-like derivatives. In contrast, repeated exposure to antigenically distinct spikes, via infection and or vaccination drives a more cross-reactive immune response, both in hamsters and people.

Continued Emergence and Evolution of Omicron in South Africa: New BA.4 and BA.5 lineages (preprint)

South Africa's fourth COVID-19 wave was driven predominantly by three lineages (BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3) of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern. We have now identified two new lineages, BA.4 and BA.5. The spike proteins of BA.4 and BA.5 are identical, and comparable to BA.2 except for the addition of 69-70del, L452R, F486V and the wild type amino acid at Q493. The 69-70 deletion in spike allows these lineages to be identified by the proxy marker of S-gene target failure with the TaqPath COVID-19 qPCR assay. BA.4 and BA.5 have rapidly replaced BA.2, reaching more than 50% of sequenced cases in South Africa from the first week of April 2022 onwards. Using a multinomial logistic regression model, we estimate growth advantages for BA.4 and BA.5 of 0.08 (95% CI: 0.07 - 0.09) and 0.12 (95% CI: 0.09 - 0.15) per day respectively over BA.2 in South Africa.

Recurrent SARS-CoV-2 Mutations in Immunodeficient Patients (preprint)

Long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections in immunodeficient patients are an important source of variation for the virus but are understudied. Many case studies have been published which describe one or a small number of long-term infected individuals but no study has combined these sequences into a cohesive dataset. This work aims to rectify this and study the genomics of this patient group through a combination of literature searches as well as identifying new case series directly from the COG-UK dataset. The spike gene receptor binding domain (RBD) and N-terminal domains (NTD) were identified as mutation hotspots. Numerous mutations associated with variants of concern were observed to emerge recurrently. Additionally a mutation in the envelope gene, - T30I was determined to be the most recurrent frequently occurring mutation arising in persistent infections. A high proportion of recurrent mutations in immunodeficient individuals are associated with ACE2 affinity, immune escape, or viral packaging optimisation. There is an apparent selective pressure for mutations which aid intra-host transmission or persistence which are often different to mutations which aid inter-host transmission, although the fact that multiple recurrent de novo mutations are considered defining for variants of concern strongly indicates that this potential source of novel variants should not be discounted.

The SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, shows rapid replication in human primary nasal epithelial cultures and efficiently uses the endosomal route of entry. (preprint)

At the end of 2021 a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, emerged and quickly spread across the world. It has been demonstrated that Omicrons high number of Spike mutations lead to partial immune evasion from even polyclonal antibody responses, allowing frequent re-infection and vaccine breakthroughs. However, it seems unlikely these antigenic differences alone explain its rapid growth; here we show Omicron replicates rapidly in human primary airway cultures, more so even than the previously dominant variant of concern, Delta. Omicron Spike continues to use human ACE2 as its primary receptor, to which it binds more strongly than other variants. Omicron Spike mediates enhanced entry into cells expressing several different animal ACE2s, including various domestic avian species, horseshoe bats and mice suggesting it has an increased propensity for reverse zoonosis and is more likely than previous variants to establish an animal reservoir of SARS-CoV-2. Unlike other SARS-CoV-2 variants, however, Omicron Spike has a diminished ability to induce syncytia formation. Furthermore, Omicron is capable of efficiently entering cells in a TMPRSS2-independent manner, via the endosomal route. We posit this enables Omicron to infect a greater number of cells in the respiratory epithelium, allowing it to be more infectious at lower exposure doses, and resulting in enhanced intrinsic transmissibility.

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant (preprint)

The Delta variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 has spread globally causing large outbreaks and resurgences of COVID-19 cases. The emergence of Delta in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here we analyse 52,992 Delta genomes from England in combination with 93,649 global genomes to reconstruct the emergence of Delta, and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England, in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Through analysis of human movement, contact tracing, and virus genomic data, we find that the focus of geographic expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced >1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers from India reduced onward transmission from importations; however the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England had been already seeded before restrictions were introduced. In England, increasing inter- regional travel drove Delta's nationwide dissemination, with some cities receiving >2,000 observable lineage introductions from other regions. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing, not the number of importations, was associated with faster relative growth of Delta. Among US states, we find that regions that previously experienced large waves also had faster Delta growth rates, and a model including interactions between immunity and human behaviour could accurately predict the rise of Delta there. Delta's invasion dynamics depended on fine scale spatial heterogeneity in immunity and contact patterns and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce transmission of current and future VOCs such as Omicron.

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta have extended ACE2 receptor host-ranges (preprint)

Following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in China in late 2019 a number of variants have emerged, with two of these, Alpha and Delta, subsequently growing to global prevalence. One characteristic of these variants are changes within the Spike protein, in particular the receptor binding domain (RBD). From a public health perspective these changes have important implications for increased transmissibility and immune escape; however, their presence could also modify the intrinsic host-range of the virus. Using viral pseudotyping we examined whether the variants of concern (VOCs) Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta have differing host ACE2 receptor usage patterns, focusing on a range of relevant mammalian ACE2 proteins. All four VOCs were able to overcome a previous restriction for mouse ACE2, with demonstrable differences also seen for individual VOCs with rat, ferret or civet ACE2 receptors, changes which we subsequently attribute to N501Y and E484K substitutions within the Spike RBD.

Mutations that adapt SARS-CoV-2 to mustelid hosts do not increase fitness in the human airway. (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 has a broad mammalian species tropism infecting humans, cats, dogs and farmed mink. Since the start of the 2019 pandemic several reverse zoonotic outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 have occurred in mink, one of which reinfected humans and caused a cluster of infections in Denmark. Here we investigate the molecular basis of mink and ferret adaptation and demonstrate the spike mutations Y453F, F486L, and N501T all specifically adapt SARS-CoV-2 to use mustelid ACE2. Furthermore, we risk assess these mutations and conclude mink-adapted viruses are unlikely to pose an increased threat to humans, as Y453F attenuates the virus replication in human cells and all 3 mink-adaptations have minimal antigenic impact. Finally, we show that certain SARS-CoV-2 variants emerging from circulation in humans may naturally have a greater propensity to infect mustelid hosts and therefore these species should continue to be surveyed for reverse zoonotic infections.

The ChAdOx1 vectored vaccine, AZD2816, induces strong immunogenicity against SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 and other variants of concern in preclinical studies. (preprint)

There is an ongoing global effort, to design, manufacture, and clinically assess vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. Over the course of the ongoing pandemic a number of new SARS-CoV-2 virus isolates or variants of concern (VoC) have been identified containing mutations that negatively impact the role of neutralising antibodies. In this study we describe the generation and preclinical assessment of a ChAdOx1-vectored vaccine against the variant of concern B.1.351 (AZD2816). We demonstrate AZD2816 is immunogenic after a single dose and when used as a booster dose in animals primed with original vaccine AZD1222, we see no evidence of original antigenic sin but high titre antibodies against a number of variant spike proteins. In addition, neutralisation titres against B.1.351 (Beta), B.1.617.1 (Kappa) and B.1.617.2 (Delta), are induced in these boost regimens. These data support the ongoing clinical development and testing of this new variant vaccine.

The SARS-CoV-2 variants associated with infections in India, B.1.617, show enhanced spike cleavage by furin (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) glycoprotein contains a suboptimal furin cleavage site at the S1/S2 junction with the sequence 681PRRAR/S686. This cleavage site is required for efficient airway replication, transmission, and pathogenicity of the virus. The B.1.617 lineage has recently emerged in India, coinciding with substantial disease burden across the country. Early evidence suggests that B.1.617.2 (a sublineage of B.1.617) is more highly transmissible than contemporary lineages. B.1.617 and its sublineages contain a constellation of S mutations including the substitution P681R predicted to further optimise this furin cleavage site. In this short report we provide experimental evidence that virus of the B.1.617 lineage has enhanced S cleavage, that enhanced processing of an expressed B.1.617 S protein in cells is due to P681R, and that this mutation enables more efficient cleavage of a peptide mimetic of the B.1.617 S1/S2 cleavage site by recombinant furin. Together, these data demonstrate viruses in this emerging lineage have enhanced S cleavage by furin which we hypothesise could be enhancing transmissibility and pathogenicity.

A common TMPRSS2 variant protects against severe COVID-19 (preprint)

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 has a wide range of clinical presentations, from asymptomatic to life-threatening. Old age is the strongest factor associated with increased COVID19-related mortality, followed by sex and pre-existing conditions. The importance of genetic and immunological factors on COVID19 outcome is also starting to emerge, as demonstrated by population studies and the discovery of damaging variants in genes controlling type I IFN immunity and of autoantibodies that neutralize type I IFNs. The human protein transmembrane protease serine type 2 (TMPRSS2) plays a key role in SARS-CoV-2 infection, as it is required to activate the virus spike protein, facilitating entry into target cells. We focused on the only common TMPRSS2 non-synonymous variant predicted to be damaging (rs12329760), which has a minor allele frequency of [~]25% in the population. In a large population of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients, we show that this variant is associated with a reduced likelihood of developing severe COVID19 (OR 0.87, 95%CI:0.79-0.97, p=0.01). This association was stronger in homozygous individuals when compared to the general population (OR 0.65, 95%CI:0.50-0.84, p=1.3x10-3). We demonstrate in vitro that this variant, which causes the amino acid substitution valine to methionine, impacts the catalytic activity of TMPRSS2 and is less able to support SARS-CoV-2 spike-mediated entry into cells. TMPRSS2 rs12329760 is a common variant associated with a significantly decreased risk of severe COVID19. Further studies are needed to assess the expression of the TMPRSS2 across different age groups. Moreover, our results identify TMPRSS2 as a promising drug target, with a potential role for camostat mesilate, a drug approved for the treatment of chronic pancreatitis and postoperative reflux esophagitis, in the treatment of COVID19. Clinical trials are needed to confirm this.